Armenia-Russia relations: A "point of no return" by June 2026? 

ArmInfo. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's recent visit to Moscow was necessary to legitimize Armenia's shift in foreign policy, as stated by Benjamin  Matevosyan, a political analyst at the Political Economy Research  Institute, during a conference  "The Impact of Regional and Electoral  Processes on Russian-Armenian Relations" in Yerevan on April 3.  The  conference was organized by the Analytical Center for Strategic  Studies and Initiatives (ACSSI).

According to the expert, this visit demonstrated that the traditional  model of cooperation between Yerevan and Moscow has officially  reached its limit. " The Moscow visit revealed a total lack of  consensus on everything from the fall of Nagorno-Karabakh to  Armenia's future Eurasian vs. European trajectory," Matevosyan noted.

He also noted that in recent years, statements about a crisis in  Armenian-Russian relations have mostly come from the analytical  community and journalists, but at the highest political level, an  attempt has been made to maintain a certain diplomatic etiquette.  "However, the information surrounding the Armenian Prime Minister's  visit to Moscow and the subsequent analysis of what was presented by  government- affiliated media and experts demonstrates that this visit  was, among other things, necessary to legitimize a shift in Armenia's  foreign policy vector. After all, by accusing your strategic ally on  live television of having caused the fall of the Nagorno-Karabakh  Republic, you are at the very least making a bid for a change in  Armenia's foreign policy vector," the political scientist emphasized.

Speaking about the Russian side's position, Matevosyan recalled that  several days before the Armenian Prime Minister's visit, Russian  Transport Minister Andrei Nikitin, and subsequently Russian Foreign  Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova, stated that Russia was not  negotiating with Armenia regarding the sale of the Armenian railways  concession management. "After Pashinyan's visit, an interview with  Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk, the architect of the  current system of interaction between the Armenian and Russian  governments, was published. His statements also demonstrated that the  current level of Russian-Armenian relations is indeed plagued by  serious problems. These problems have accumulated, and the Russian  side believes that the time has passed when it was possible to convey  through other channels, primarily to Armenian society, the existence  of problems in the relations between the two states," the expert  noted.

According to Matevosyan, Overchuk's statements were a clear message  that things could no longer continue as they are. "Overchuk  essentially stated that Russian businesses lack confidence in  Armenia's political course. This, incidentally, has already led to a  $5 billion decline in trade between the two countries, and there is  also a serious issue with Armenia's energy security," Matevosyan  noted.

In this vein, the expert pointed to the "coincidental" shutdown of  the Armenian Nuclear Power Plant for repairs during the Moscow visit,  as a sign of deepening friction in essential sectors. According to  him, such coincidences are rare in big politics.

Summing up, the expert expressed his conviction that the reality of  Armenian-Russian relations will change definitively on June 8, 2026,  the day after the country's parliamentary elections. " Regardless of  who wins, the old level of relations is gone. But if the current  government stays, the entire framework will be dismantled. Everything  happening now concludes on June 8.  This will lead to Russian state  capital and the Russian military presence being simply withdrawn from  Armenian territory in the near future. The main beneficiary of this  is, of course, Turkey. And let everyone draw their own conclusions.  If political change occurs in Armenia through electoral processes,  then, at least based on the public statements currently being made by  opposition political forces, it is clear that they are more committed  to building a dialogue with Russia as a predictable and reliable  partner. Whether this will be successful or not, time will tell. But  everything that is currently happening in Armenian-Russian relations  will end on June 8," Matevosyan concluded.

Recall, Putin-Pashinyan talks took place in Moscow on April 1. The  meeting took place in a rather tense atmosphere, with the parties  exchanging accusations. The Russian leader emphasized Moscow's  position on Yerevan's claims against the CSTO, the Nagorno-Karabakh  issue, Yerevan's integration into the EU, and further cooperation  with the Eurasian Economic Union. The parties also discussed the  construction of a nuclear power plant and the persecution of Russian  businessman Samvel Karapetyan in Armenia. In turn, Pashinyan assured  of the friendly nature of bilateral relations, recalled the claims  against the CSTO, attempted to shift responsibility for the surrender  of Artsakh to Russia, and declared that Russian citizens would not be  able to participate in political processes in Armenia.