Orientalist: Detention of Istanbul`s opposition mayor is Turkish president`s election ploy

ArmInfo. The mayor of Istanbul,  Ekrem Imamoglu, is the most likely rival of Turkish President Tayyip  Erdogan, and his arrest yesterday fits in to the logic of the  incumbent president's pre-election strategy. This was stated by Ruben  Safrastyan, the chief researcher of the RA National Academy of  Sciences and an orientalist, in a conversation with an ArmInfo  correspondent,, in response to a request to assess the arrest of the  opposition mayor of Istanbul and the protests that have ensued in the  country as a result.

 The orientalist noted that upcoming  primaries are scheduled to be  held in Turkey within the Republican People's Party. These primaries  will determine a candidate to oppose the country's president. As  Safrastyam explained, the mayor's detention may be related to  Erdogan's intention to once again put forward his candidacy in the  presidential elections. He noted that the current Turkish president  can only run for this position  if early elections are called

"Additionally, it should be taken into account that Turkey is  currently entering a transformational period in its history. In the  upcoming years, the country aims to catch up with the leading powers  and establish itself as a leading force in the Middle East.  Therefore, it is important for Erdogan to maintain full control over  the domestic situation," the expert clarified.

Touching upon the protests, Safrastyan noted that their success will  depend on whether the Republican People's Party can mobilize the  population not only in Istanbul, but also in other major cities in  the country, as well as in the provinces that traditionally vote for  Erdogan. "Strong pressure on the government may compel it to make  concessions. In this case, the charges against Imamoglu may be  softened, resulting in a shorter prison sentence for him. However, if  it is not possible to mobilize large masses of protesters throughout  the country, the charges may proceed to court, potentially leading to  Imamoglu facing several years in prison." 

The professor also emphasized the significance of the Kurdish factor  in the current political situation in Turkey. According to him,  Erdogan has traditionally had support from the Kurds, and his efforts  towards a peaceful resolution of the Kurdish issue stem from internal  political calculations.

Nevertheless, Safrastyan ruled out the possibility of a coup in the  country, pointing out that Erdogan currently has complete control  over the situation. However, he drew attention to the growing  discontent among Turkish society towards the president, who has been  in power for a long time. "According to some polls, Imamoglu has even  higher ratings than Erdogan. Imamoglu's support among the younger and  more educated sections of the population indicates that they are  already bored with Erdogan. The time aspect plays a key role: when  the election date is known, then it will be possible to make more  accurate forecasts.  At the moment, it is too early to talk about  anything specific," the professor concluded.