Karine Gevorgyan: France is unable to provide security for Armenia  even in theory, as it lacks necessary military logistics

ArmInfo. France is unable to provide security for Armenia even in theory, because it lacks the  required military logistics. This statement was made by the renowned Russian scientist, Iranologist, and expert  on regional issues Karine Gevorgyan, in an interview with 

ArmInfo.  ArmInfo correspondent inquired about the reasons behind  Yerevan's decision to gradually replace Russian border guards on its  borders, and whether this decision could be linked to the expansion  of the Armenia-EU partnership agenda, to which the expert noted that  there are two factors at play in the withdrawal of Russian border  guards from the Armenian-Iranian border: Armenian and Russian. She  further mentioned that the situation on the Russian side cannot be  called perfect and this can be multiplied by a  thousand and misrepresented in Armenia, which is obvious.   "Politicians can resort to this, and it is not so important under  whose pressure," Gevorgyan said.

At the same time, she finds the statement by the Prime Minister of  Armenia Nikol Pashinyan, that the security of communications through   Syunik can be ensured jointly by Russian and Armenian border guards  to be intriguing. "This is clearly a nod towards Moscow. But I  believe that Tehran's perspective should not be disregarded in this  matter. The Iranian side may not be in the foreground to discuss this  issue, but it is evident that this is a crucial matter for them," the  expert said.

At the same time, she brought up another issue. Gevorgyan pointed out  that in the Armenian expert community, there is a growing sentiment  that Armenia is shifting towards the West. Criticism of Russia's  policy in the South Caucasus is also on the rise, however, it tends  to be more superficial and symbolic, rather than profound and  meaningful.  "This is due to the fact that there is a lack of  understanding of what is happening in Russia itself, as it is  currently in a transitional state. Among other things, there is a  slow and painful change of elites," the Russian expert noted. She  also believes that Armenia's reliance on France, which is currently  facing challenges, is  short-sighted. "But that's not the point. I  get the impression that people, advocating for Armenian-French  defense relations, have not studied geography well," Gevorgyan said.  She pointed out that there is no military logistics, and France  cannot even theoretically ensure Armenia's security. "Only Iran has  military logistics to protect Armenia, directly, because there is a  common border. This border is important to Iran, as it affects its  own security," the expert noted.

According to her, this can also be done by India, which supplies  Armenia with weapons through the same territory of Iran, and Tehran  allows these military supplies to pass. "Sorry, but you can't bring  CAESAR self-propelled artillery units by plane - this can only be  done by land. The French do not have military transport aircraft like  the Russians. This can only be done through Iran. Can you imagine how  this should happen?" the expert asked, adding that this is completely  unthinkable.

According to her, Russia is another country that can guarantee  Armenia's security - through the Caspian Sea and again through Iran.  Gevorgyan believes that this is the actual military logistics that  can safeguard Armenia's security. "Why tell the people about France?"  she asked. At the same time, she acknowledged that Russia's policy in  the post-Soviet space had been unsuccessful, putting its own security  on risk, as evidenced by Ukraine. Gevorgyan expressed hope that  Russia would still be able to get out of this stalemate.

 When asked about the potential impact of current processes in the  Middle East on Iran's position in the South Caucasus, the expert  noted that Iran, as a large country, . She is confident that Israel  alone does not have the resources to wage war with Iran. "I remember  the Pentagon report from 2010, when Iran was not yet the Iran it is  today - with a hypersonic missile. Even then, they claimed that  bombing would not be enough for an operation against Iran - this is  not Iraq. A ground operation would be necessary, involving up to  800,000 troops. Is there nowhere to get them today? In addition,  NATO's arsenal has been depleted to a certain extent by events in the  Middle East and Ukraine. Even the United States does not have the  capacity to begin producing weapons in large quantities for objective  reasons," she said. She added that America would need up to 8 years  to get everything on the necessary military track. 

Simultaneously, Gevorgyan believes that  a polycentric world could be  established, with the creation of a specific currency and economic  zone, that could potentially include  resource-rich countries such as  Russia, Iran, India and African countries. "It is noticeable that  Russian diplomacy is working intensively in the African direction,  not only diplomacy, but also PMCs. Therefore, I am optimistic," she  said. Based on the above, the Russian expert expressed confidence  that any important communication decisions made on the South Caucasus  by certain external forces have no chance of being implemented    according to the " letter of the law"  and  will be transformed. In  this regard, she expressed the conviction that there is no need to  hurry and .