After second Karabakh war Yerevan lost its informal status as patron  of Nagorno-Karabakh`s self- determination - Sergey Markedonov

ArmInfo. After the second Karabakh war Yerevan lost its informal status as patron of  Nagorno-Karabakh's self-determination and guarantor of its security,  Russian expert Sergey Markedonov stated as he commented on Armenian  Premier Nikol Pashinyan's statements at his latest news conference. 

The expert stated that one should not look for any special novelty in  the January theses of the Prime Minister of Armenia. "He did not  discover any previously unknown trends, but rather sharpened their  perception (English has the verb "to sharpen", which is exactly what  he did). Moreover, after the second Karabakh war, Yerevan lost the  informal status of the patron of self-determination Nagorno-Karabakh  and the guarantor of its security. Throughout the past year,  Pashinyan, as well as his closest associates Armen Grigoryan and  Ararat Mirzoyan, have publicly emphasized that Russian peacekeepers  are responsible for the situation in Artsakh. In 2022, the so-called  Alma-Ata formula was updated, then there is Yerevan's readiness to  recognize the Republic of Armenia within the borders of the Armenian  SSR. Moreover, this item was included in the text of the tripartite  Sochi pressure of October 31, 2022," he said.

At the same time, he drew attention to the fact that the approaches  of Moscow and Yerevan are systemically different, the personality  factor is secondary here. Markedonov noted that the question here is  not who is bad, but who is good (both the Russian Federation and  Armenia have their fair reasons).

"The problem is different assessments of the situation and different  expectations. Russia, bound by the special military operation in  Ukraine and deepening confrontation with the West, here now depends  more on the Ankara-Baku tandem. Even the accession of Armenia to the  Union State of the Russian Federation and Belarus would not cancel  this fact.

At the same time, Armenia, obviously, would like a clearer position  of Moscow and the CSTO. Simply because of the political masses, any  integration structure with the participation of the Russian  Federation is perceived as Russian. But today Moscow cannot, due to  the reasons described above, clearly and unambiguously "decide" in  favor of Armenia. And even more so her CSTO allies. But after all,  Yerevan cannot simply stand in a detached pose and humbly wait for  its fate. Society puts pressure on Pashinyan with demands to do at  least something, but at the same time it is no longer ready for a new  large-scale confrontation with Azerbaijan. As a result, emotions  prevail, tactics take precedence over strategy," the Russian expert  said. 

The Azerbaijani leader openly stated his discontent with Armenia's  policy of protracting a peaceful settlement. Baku is naturally  insisting on its terms, and Pashinyan cannot disregard its intentions  - even if he were triply pro-Russian and quadruply pro-Western," Mr  Markedonov said.