Talks about unblocking the Lachin Corridor will definitely lead to  some result, but the question is, what will Azerbaijan demand for it?  - Political scientist

ArmInfo. Azerbaijan is exerting powerful pressure on Armenia and the NKR, and thus more and more exploring , checking the power of Russian peacekeepers, advancing its interests and achieving their effectiveness step by step,  director of the Caucasus Institute, political scientist Alexander  Iskandaryan told Civil.net in an interview.

According to the political scientist, the blocking of the Lachin  corridor by the so-called "environmental activists" and the  preparation of prerequisites for a humanitarian catastrophe in  Artsakh are for the same reasons as the September military aggression  against Armenia or discursive pressure on the so-called final  solution to the Karabakh problem, but more sophisticated form.  According to Iskandaryan, sooner or later, Karabakh and Armenia would  have faced such actions, since these are not some kind of tactical  steps, but a strategic line aimed at maximizing their own  capabilities that go beyond the framework of trilateral agreements  signed after the 44-day Karabakh war.

According to the political scientist, the only limiter for Azerbaijan  in this sense is the Russian reaction, which Baku thus periodically  tests and sees that this reaction is weak and inadequate in its  strength and, as a result, is not capable of interrupting such a  strategic behavioral line. And Baku's strategy, according to the  expert, is clear : to get extraterritorial status for the so-called  Zangezur corridor and, possibly, joint control over the Lachin  corridor.

As for the reaction of the West, of course there is a reaction, but  it is naturally limited to political and diplomatic tools in the form  of statements and notes, and possibly closed forms of diplomatic  influence. But the problem is that this toolkit is unable to  seriously influence Baku's strategy.

According to the expert, Azerbaijan considers that time is against it  and wants to solve all its problems as soon as possible . Because it fears that something may change in the great  geopolitics of the region.

The political scientist considers it frivolous to wait for any  international sanctions against Baku for causing a humanitarian  crisis, because when we say Azerbaijan today, we mean Turkey, and  today it is extremely valuable both for the West and for Russia.  Brussels and Washington need Ankara more than vice versa.  Ankara  supports Baku 100 percent. This is rational and justified from the  point of view of penetration and strengthening of Turkey's positions  in the South Caucasus.

"Russia is a great power and, with its weight, performs certain  functions in the region. But what are these functions? It is  definitely not going to attack Azerbaijan from Dagestani side. I  think that about the current situation, Russia is conducting an  active negotiation process, which will most likely lead to the  unblocking of the corridor, but the question is what Azerbaijan will  demand for this.

In this context, the political scientist reminded that Russia now has  many other concerns, "it has different optics". In this perspective,  the "Azerbaijan-Turkey" connection is clearly visible, and Russia has  a whole mosaic of relations with Turkey. These are the Crimean  problem, the Ukrainian problem, the Syrian problem, the creation of a  gas hub, the problems of gray exports and parallel imports,  communication channels with the Western world. "Karabakh is only a  piece of this puzzle, which, as we see, is much more extensive,"  Iskandaryan noted. In order for Armenia to be able to oppose this  strategy of Azerbaijan, it should have such an opportunity, in terms  of the state and competencies of the state apparatus, of another  higher degree of subjectivity. , the political  scientist said, emphasizing that The idea that we will leave the  problem to the Russian peacekeepers and deal with internal Armenian  problems is a wrong idea and wrong from the beginning.