Moscow views Brussels initiative as attempt to challenge its monopoly  in Karabakh - Arkady Dubnov 

ArmInfo.The Putin-Pashinyan-Aliyev meeting in Sochi is evidence that Moscow views  the forthcoming meeting between the Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders  in Brussels as an attempt to challenge its monopoly in settling the  Armenia-Azerbaijani disputes, Russian expert in the CIS Arkady Dubnov  told ArmInfo. 

"In this context, noteworthy is the hasty preparations for the Sochi  summit. And the consent Nikol Pashinyan and Ilham Aliyev gave to a  meeting in Brussels on December 15 at the invitation of the President  of the European Council Charles Michel only sped up the process. I  think Moscow had all the reasons to think that the Brussels  initiative could be an attempt to its monopoly in Karabakh - even  despite Europe`s assurances that they did not hold any high  expectations about Brussels as a starting point for a breakthrough in  the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict settlement," the expert said.  He  stressed that the meeting in Sochi was possible only after the armed  incident in Armenia`s Syunik on November 16 - the largest-scale  hostilities since last November. And the Armenian premier was right  when he described it as "Azerbaijani troops` incursion into Armenia`s  sovereign territory." Without rejecting this, Mr Dubnov stressed that  it is only by enforcement that peace can be established in the South  Caucasus.  And Baku demonstrated it not only on November 16, 2021,  but also last autumn by upsetting the long- standing status quo as a  result of the 44-day war. 

According to Dubnov, Moscow had been seeking to preserve the status  quo of 1994 as a factor enabling it to keep the post-Soviet conflicts  frozen as long as possible. In its turn, Yerevan viewed the status  quo as the happy outcome of the first Karabakh and hopes to retain it  as long as possible. However, Baku would not agree and, regardless of  the cost they had to pay for the 44 days, settled the matter by force  and is now presenting a claim to Yerevan. 

Elaborating on the Sochi meeting results, the expert said the  complete absence of any mention of Nagorno- Karabakh in the  statements by Presidents Vladimir Putin and Ilham Aliyev was evidence  of Moscow`s desire to disregard Baku`s ambition to close the question  of Nagorno-Karabakh`s status as a result of the 44-day war. Moscow  does not at all share Baku`s attitude nor is it eager to advertise  the fact. The primary reason is the Russian peacekeepers in  Nagorno-Karabakh and Moscow`s desire to extend their presence after  the 5-year period has expired.  

"So it must be the discussion of the Nagorno-Karabakh problem outside  the Sochi meeting agenda that enabled Yerevan and Baku to bypass  their fundamental disagreements and focus on the problems that can be  resolved now. It should be admitted that the Karabakh is not a  dominant political issue in Armenia.  Striking evidence thereof is  the results of the Sochi meeting, namely, the quite positive final  public statements by Pashinyan and Aliyev," Dubnov said.