Several causes of border escalation - Russian military expert 

ArmInfo.Several causes account for the latest armed escalation on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border, the military expert Vladimir Yevseyev, Head of the Caucasus  Section, CIS Institute, told ArmInfo. 

"You know, Baku euphoria over the victory in last year`s  Nagorno-Karabakh war is fueled by external forces that are not  interested in Russia`s expanding presence in the South Caucasus. By  and large, I do not see a possibility of a large-scale war between  Armenia and Azerbaijan now, but a new war in Nagorno- Karabakh cannot  be ruled out either. A new war may break out both due to domestic  political causes - Azerbaijan never achieved the set targets last  year - and due to foreign intervention by, example, Turkey," he said. 

Of course, Moscow could preempt the expansion of the conflict by  deploying troops from its Military Base 102 in Gyumri. Thus,  Azerbaijan will come under pressure the Armenian armed forces are  unable to exert on it. According to the expert, these are still in  need of recovery and are incapable of large-scale hostilities.  The  communication problem is part of this process, which is a serious  obstacle to possible introduction of Russian troops into Armenia.   One of the obstacles is the absence of a common border between  Armenia and Russia. In this context, Yevseyev points out the  advisability of deployment of a second Russian military base in  Armenia, as Military Base 102 is not supposed to defend Armenia from  Azerbaijan.  "The Armenian authorities must share the responsibility  for the situation as well. And it is rather heavy.  First of all, it  is lack of steps to defuse regional tension. After all, the country`s  leader must secure its territorial integrity. And if you premier is  unable to do so, he may resign and open the way to the people who are  able to do it," the expert said. 

Any attempts of blackmailing Russia are futile, Yevseyev said,  stressing that Russia is not going to fight a war for Armenia instead  of Armenians themselves. It can do it together with Armenians. In  this context, he singled out the Armenian leadership`s "double-faced  policy" - fueling anti-Russian sentiments in the country and, at the  same time, expecting Russian aid without any steps to create an  infrastructure for this aid to arrive in Armenia. 

By shelling the Armenian positions in the east direction on November  14, Azerbaijan made a step toward a spiraling escalation of its  conflict with Armenia. On November 16, Azerbaijani troops attacked  the Armenian position using artillery, armored vehicles and firearms,  and made an incursion into Armenia`s territory. Local fighting caused  losses to both sides. The hostilities ended at 6:30pm Nov. 16, under  an agreement with the Russian mediation.