Forecast: Turkey will not participate in the conflict between Armenia  and Azerbaijan

ArmInfo. I do not think that, despite all its recent statements and even actions, Turkey is actually going to participate in the conflict between Armenia and  Azerbaijan. A similar opinion was expressed to ArmInfo by the head of  the department of Eurasian integration and development of the SCO of  the Institute of CIS countries, military expert Vladimir Evseev.

"The fact is that Turkey's intervention in the conflict between  Armenia and Azerbaijan will give it the status of a regional war. And  besides Turkey and, naturally, Russia, in this case Iran will be  forced to intervene in the conflict. It is also natural that Ankara  is not encouraged by the prospect of participating in such a  conflict, to put it mildly, "he said.

From July 29 to August 10, Azerbaijan and Turkey will hold regular  joint military exercises. According to the plan of the exercises, the  exercises of the ground forces will be held from August 1 to 5 in  Baku and Nakhichevan, bordering Armenia. Military aviation exercises  will be held from July 29 to August 10 - in Baku, Nakhijevan,  Yevlakh, Ganja and Kurdamir. The exercises will involve personnel,  armored vehicles, artillery and mortars, military aviation and air  defense systems of the two countries.

According to the expert, Ankara has recently begun to voice too many  statements about its readiness to help. In particular, the government  of the National Accord of Libya, the radical Islamists in Idlib, the  readiness to occupy the territories of Syria, to advance in Iraq. In  this light, Yevseev assesses the latest statements by Ankara to  Armenia as far from being realized, but creating quite real problems  in relations with Russia.

Turkey is a member state of the OSCE Minsk Group for the settlement  of the Karabakh conflict. At the same time, Ankara continues to  express support to Azerbaijan at different levels in connection with  the escalation initiated by Baku on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border.  On July 17, four factions of the Turkish parliament "strongly  condemned the provocations and attacks of the Armenian Armed Forces".  Earlier, the President, Defense Minister and Foreign Minister of  Turkey made similar statements.

"We are well aware of the military presence of Turkey in Nakhichevan.  Everyone knows about the participation of Turkish special forces in  the April battles in Karabakh in 2016. There is also evidence that  the wounded were taken out of the battlefield by Turkish helicopters.  It is also known that during the April war, the Azerbaijani Armed  Forces actively used Turkish jet fire systems, '' he stressed.

In this light, Yevseev believes that it is time for Ankara to make up  its mind and try to refrain from such statements. Moreover, do not  even try to implement the already voiced intentions to inflict a  diversionary blow on Armenia from the territory of Nakhichevan.  According to the expert, this will create serious problems in  Russian-Turkish relations and real grounds for Russian intervention.