Forecast: It is not necessary to expect direct US invasion of Iran

ArmInfo. It is not necessary to expect a direct US invasion of Iran, at least in the short term. The same opinion was expressed by ArmInfo member of the "Karabakh"  committee, adviser to the first president of Armenia on national security issues Ashot Manucharyan.

"Of course, Donald Trump can wag his fists as much as he likes, but the very logic of international relations, primarily the interest in relations with Iran of a number of countries, excludes the Iranian direction of the declared militancy, not only about the interests of Russia, China and even India. A blow to the US, another large-scale violation of the existing status quo will affect the EU, all Iran's neighbors, "he  said.

In this context, Manucharyan expects continued strengthening of American pressure on Iran, however, solely in the form of provoking instability on its borders and even inside the country with the involvement of Kurds, radical Islamic terrorists, etc. methods.

The analyst stressed the existence of the US president open, declarative-belligerent agenda, and closed - about which the public knows virtually nothing. An open agenda is dictated by hawks from American politics, its opponents and conditional "sorrows". Closed, according to his estimates, fully corresponds to the theses of his election campaign.

"In this light, at least in the foreseeable future, the hostility towards Iran, which is being poured into the US, is unlikely to become a military component, and therefore Armenia will not have to fear instilling instability on its southern borders, in any case, it is premature to talk about it," summed up analyst.

On October 5, after a meeting in the White House with the US military, US President Donald Trump said that "this meeting could be calm before the storm." What exactly the president had in mind, he did not specify. Currently, Trump decides whether to break the nuclear deal with Iran. After meeting with the US military, he once again stated about Tehran's violation of the spirit of this agreement. "We must not allow Iran to obtain nuclear weapons," Trump said.

Tehran and the "six" international mediators in July 2015 reached an agreement on the settlement of the Iranian nuclear issue. The parties adopted a joint comprehensive action plan, the implementation of which removes sanctions imposed from Iran earlier. The plan came into force on January 16, 2016.