Stratfor: Perspectives of Armenia and Belarus in EEU depend on results of Russia-West confrontation

Perspectives of Russia's two allies in the post-Soviet area - Armenia and Belarus - in the Eurasian Economic Union depend on the results of the Russia-West global confrontation, experts at Stratfor say.  In this light, Stratfor analysts spotlight in their report the recent statement by Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko of possible withdrawal of his country from the Moscow-initiated EEU.  "Minsk could pull out of the Moscow-led Eurasian Economic Union if agreements are not kept, but also emphasized that the country's integration with Russia is deep and strong. Meanwhile, Armenia has faced growing difficulties in its conflict with Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh, where Russia plays a key role."

Simultaneously, the report says both Yerevan and Minsk are very likely to continue the strategic course to Moscow given Lukashenko's statement that emphasizes "the deep and strong integration of Belarus and Moscow." 

"Both countries are likely to maintain their strategic orientation toward Russia, but Belarus and Armenia will continuously re-evaluate their positions depending on how the broader struggle between Moscow and the West plays out," the analysts say.

Recent developments indicate that two of Moscow's most loyal allies in the former Soviet periphery, Belarus and Armenia, may be reassessing their ties with Russia in light of the country's standoff with the West, Stratfor analysts say.