Armenian analyst: Developing relations with Europe and the U.S. must  not jeopardize relations with regional powers

ArmInfo.The development of relations with Europe and the United States must be managed in a way that prevents Armenia from endangering its vital and trusting relationships with regional powers.

Analyst Tigran Dumikyan wrote   this in his Facebook post, against the backdrop of heightened  discussions by Armenian authorities regarding the "Trump Route for  International Peace and Prosperity" (TRIPP) project amid the ongoing  U.S.-Iran conflict.

As the expert noted, the project—which involves a specific format for  an American presence in Armenia— has sparked some sensitivity and  concern in relations between Yerevan and Tehran. "Tehran has  repeatedly emphasized that it is closely monitoring any initiatives  in the region that could strengthen U.S. influence or alter the  existing strategic balance. In turn, official Yerevan assures that  the project is aimed exclusively at developing regional  communications and expanding economic cooperation, and is not  directed against any third country," Dumikyan pointed out.

However, the analyst believes that the ongoing and increasingly harsh  statements from Iranian officials show that these assurances are not  perceived as sufficiently convincing in Tehran, which could lead to  practical consequences. According to him, this indicates at the very  least that Armenia's diplomatic corps and relevant government  structures are failing to conduct sufficiently effective work—a  matter of particular concern given Armenia's significant economic  dependence on Iran.

In this regard, Dumikyan noted that Armenia imports approximately 20%  of its natural gas from Iran, which plays a crucial role in ensuring  the stability of the country's energy system. "Bilateral trade  turnover amounts to approximately $800 million per year, which is  significant for the Armenian economy. At the same time, Iranian  territory serves as a vital transit route for Armenia, as goods  imported from India, China, Persian Gulf countries—specifically the  UAE and Qatar—and several Southeast Asian states enter Armenia  precisely via this corridor," the expert stated.

Thus, as the analyst noted, Iran is not only a trading partner for  Armenia but also a crucial logistical lifeline connecting it to the  outside world. Consequently, Dumikyan argues, without fully resolving  relations with Moscow, Armenia could effectively face new problems.  In this regard, he recalled official assurances that relations with  Russia would be settled following the elections.

"Just a few months ago, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan  repeatedly stated in public that immediately after the parliamentary  elections, Russian restrictions against Armenia would be lifted. As  justification, he cited his good personal relationships with both  Russian President Vladimir Putin and Prime Minister Mikhail  Mishustin. However, following the elections, neither Putin nor  Mishustin even congratulated Pashinyan, and after a meeting with the  Russian Prime Minister in Yekaterinburg, no noticeable positive shift  in Armenian-Russian relations was recorded. Meanwhile, it is vital  for us that the development of relations with Europe and the U.S.   does not jeopardize Armenia's trusting and important ties with  regional powers. Politics is the art of the possible," the analyst  noted.

In short, the expert explained, Armenia must not turn into a pawn in  the geopolitical games of global powers. Instead, he argues, the  country must leverage existing contradictions between them in its own  interest without compromising its security and strategic priorities.  "At this crucial stage, we simply have no room for error. Therefore,  Armenia needs a balanced and far-sighted foreign policy that will  serve exclusively the long-term interests of our state and people,"  Dumikyan concluded.